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A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.

Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."