Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.